Immune System

CRITICAL Mar 4, 2026 96th pctl turbulence

STATUS: CRITICAL

Cross-asset turbulence is at extreme levels. The market is in crisis-mode. While turbulence alone does not predict forward drawdowns, extreme readings indicate regime fragility. Check credit stress for forward risk.

What does this mean?

The market is in crisis mode. This is the highest stress level. Different investments are moving in extreme, unusual patterns all at once. Think of it like a severe storm warning — the storm is already here. If credit markets are also flashing red, this is when you want to be reducing risk and raising cash.

What's Driving It

[CURRENT STATE] ⬆ Turbulence CRITICAL -- cross-asset stress well above normal Measures how many different investments are moving in unusual ways at the same time — like a fever thermometer for the whole market
[FORWARD-LOOK] ⬇ BKLN BELOW 200-day MA -- credit market confirmation Tracks risky corporate loans (the kind private equity firms use for buyouts). When this drops below its long-term average, it signals that stress is spreading from stocks into corporate debt — a serious escalation
[CURRENT STATE] ● Dispersion ELEVATED -- above-normal name-level divergence Tracks whether individual stocks are moving together or going in wildly different directions. High dispersion under a calm surface is a hidden warning sign
[CURRENT STATE] ○ Software NORMAL -- software stress in line with market Compares how much software/tech stocks are swinging versus the overall market. When this sector is stressed beyond normal, it often spreads
[CURRENT STATE] ⬆ Breadth BROADENING -- healthy participation across names Measures whether the whole market is moving together, or if gains are concentrated in just a few big stocks. Narrow breadth (only a few stocks going up) is a warning that the rally is fragile

INTERPRETATION

The market is in a crisis regime. While turbulence alone does not predict drawdowns, extreme turbulence combined with elevated credit stress produces significantly worse outcomes (MDD -4.42% vs -2.18% for neither stressed). If credit stress is simultaneously elevated, take defensive action.

In plain English

In plain English: this is the worst it gets. The market is in full crisis mode. If credit markets are also stressed (check the Credit Stress report), history shows this combination leads to significantly worse losses (-4.4% average max drawdown vs -2.2% normally). This is when capital preservation matters most.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS (CRITICAL)

TAKE ACTION NOW -- reduce position sizes significantly
Raise cash levels significantly (Cash is the only asset that doesn't lose value in a crisis. Having cash ready means you can buy opportunities when the storm passes)
Hedge long exposure (puts, inverse ETFs)
Avoid adding any new positions
Monitor DAILY until turbulence subsides
Leveraged loans below 200-day MA -- equity stress may be crossing into credit; reduce risk in leveraged names

Detailed Metrics

Turbulence: 24.34 (96th percentile)How unusual is today's market behavior compared to the past year? Higher = more unusual.

Magnitude Surprise: 23.2How extreme are today's price moves in absolute size? A bigger number means larger-than-expected moves.

Correlation Surprise: 1.05xAre investments moving together in unusual ways? Above 1.0x means correlations are higher than normal (things are moving in lockstep).

Days Elevated: 2 daysHow many consecutive days has stress been above normal? Longer streaks suggest persistent stress, not a one-day blip.

Divergence Active: NOIs there a contradiction between what the market surface looks like and what's happening underneath? YES means the index looks calm but stress is building below the surface.

Dispersion Ratio: 2.28 (81th percentile)How spread out are individual stock returns? A high number means stocks are going in very different directions — the market can't agree on a direction.

Stealth Stress: NOIs stress hiding? This fires when individual stocks are diverging sharply but the overall index looks calm — a classic sign that trouble is building before it shows up in the headlines.

Breadth (RSP/SPY): 1.04 (broad)Are most stocks going up, or just a few big ones? Below 0.97 = narrow (bad), above 1.03 = broad (good), in between = balanced.

BKLN Trend: BELOW 200-day MAIs the risky loan market healthy? BELOW the 200-day average means loans are under pressure — a sign that stress is spreading beyond stocks.

Sector Stress Ratios: How volatile is each sector compared to the overall market? Above 1.0x means that sector is more stressed than average. Above 1.5x is a red flag.

AI / Core: 0.13x

Software / Core: 0.2x

Consumer Credit / Core: 0.08x

HY OAS: N/AThe 'high yield spread' — the extra interest rate that risky companies must pay to borrow. Higher = more fear about corporate defaults. The percentile tells you where this sits versus the past 2 years.

Funding Spread: N/AThe cost of short-term borrowing between banks. Negative = cheaper than normal (good). Positive = more expensive than normal (stress in the financial plumbing).

SPX vs 50-day MA: 680.33 (BELOW 50-day MA)Is the S&P 500 above or below its 50-day trend line? Below = the market is in a short-term downtrend.

VIX: 23.6The 'fear index.' Measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days. Below 15 = calm. 15-25 = normal. 25-35 = elevated fear. Above 35 = extreme fear.

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