THE BRIDGE

Regime → CAUTIOUS. Expect CPI to print higher. Favor commodity-linked positions, trim rate-sensitive. Do not panic-sell hard asset positions — this is structural confirmation.

Pre-peak: defensive posture, smaller positions, wider stops on accumulation plays. Post-peak: shift regime toward ON, increase position sizes aggressively — the next leg starts here.

If triggered: accelerate crypto accumulation (debasement thesis strengthens). This is the scenario where BTC thesis pays off biggest. Increase position sizes on hard assets.

Reduce tactical exposure, tighten stops on non-structural positions. If S&P YoY goes negative, regime → OFF for tactical positions. Accumulation plays continue per thesis (recession accelerates debasement case).

Regime → CAUTIOUS if housing data confirms. Reinforces hard asset / crypto thesis for accumulation plays. Go more conservative on tactical positions.

Already feeding regime gate via credit stress model. If score rises above 80, regime → OFF for tactical positions. Validate that credit stress model thresholds are calibrated to current environment.

Regime → CAUTIOUS or OFF depending on severity. This is the 'something breaks' scenario — Fed liquidity facility likely response, which is eventually bullish for crypto. Monitor insurance sector (XLF, specific names) and PE firms (BX, KKR, APO) weekly.

AI infra positions may draw down sharply on supply disruption — this is noise within the thesis, not a thesis break. Widen stops on AI infra during active disruption. Do NOT panic-sell structural positions on supply shock. Research helium price proxies.

This is expected behavior, not a thesis break. Accumulation play: hold and potentially add if BTC hits 55K-50K zone. Do NOT leverage during high-correlation selloffs. Maximum pain threshold still applies. Do not confuse a correlation selloff with thesis invalidation.

Expect more downside volatility through April. Size new equity positions more conservatively during blackout window. Regime gate should apply more conservative thresholds during this period. Resolves automatically ~late April 2026.

Trust the regime gate. Do not override CAUTIOUS or OFF because it 'feels like a bottom.' Wait for regime → ON with 3-session confirmation before adding tactical positions. Accumulation tranches must follow pre-defined zone triggers (60K, 55K, 50K), not impulse.

This is a regime input — when revision breadth breaks negative for 3+ weeks, expect acceleration in downside. Do not try to catch falling knives during the revision reset. Wait for regime → ON confirmation before adding.

Enforce trailing stop or partial profit-take per Play 2 rules before any position reaches 30% gain. This is a process enforcement issue, not a market call. Solved by the rules framework, not by this risk radar.

Execute planned accumulation tranches per Play 1 rules. Do not deviate from plan in either direction — no panic selling at 50K, no impulsive oversizing. Excessive shorts (Renmack) is a confirming signal to add, not a contrarian warning.

Add to precious metals and AI infra commodity positions on 20-30% pullbacks from highs when RSI is oversold and structural thesis remains intact. Use drawdown detector (can be extended from existing tools). Do not treat corrections as thesis breaks.

Monitor monthly CPI releases. At first declining MoM print: prepare to increase exposure. At second consecutive declining MoM print: shift regime toward ON, increase position sizes aggressively. The turn will be sharp — don't wait for universal confirmation.