Immune System
STATUS: ELEVATED
What does this mean?
The market is showing some mild stress — like a low-grade fever. Different investments are moving in slightly unusual ways compared to recent history. This doesn't predict a crash — in fact, mild stress often appears near the bottom of dips, not the start. Keep an eye on things, but no need to panic.
What's Driving It
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS (ELEVATED)
- Monitor more frequently (every 2-3 days)
- Review stop-loss levels on open positions
- Avoid adding concentrated new positions
- Ensure hedges are in place
Detailed Metrics
Turbulence: 6.7 (70th percentile)How unusual is today's market behavior compared to the past year? Higher = more unusual.
Magnitude Surprise: 5.0How extreme are today's price moves in absolute size? A bigger number means larger-than-expected moves.
Correlation Surprise: N/AAre investments moving together in unusual ways? Above 1.0x means correlations are higher than normal (things are moving in lockstep).
Days Elevated: ? daysHow many consecutive days has stress been above normal? Longer streaks suggest persistent stress, not a one-day blip.
Divergence Active: NOIs there a contradiction between what the market surface looks like and what's happening underneath? YES means the index looks calm but stress is building below the surface.
Dispersion Ratio: ?How spread out are individual stock returns? A high number means stocks are going in very different directions — the market can't agree on a direction.
Stealth Stress: NOIs stress hiding? This fires when individual stocks are diverging sharply but the overall index looks calm — a classic sign that trouble is building before it shows up in the headlines.
Breadth (RSP/SPY): ?Are most stocks going up, or just a few big ones? Below 0.97 = narrow (bad), above 1.03 = broad (good), in between = balanced.
BKLN Trend: ?Is the risky loan market healthy? BELOW the 200-day average means loans are under pressure — a sign that stress is spreading beyond stocks.
Sector Stress Ratios:
How volatile is each sector compared to the overall market? Above 1.0x means that sector is more stressed than average. Above 1.5x is a red flag.
AI / Core: 0.9x
Software / Core: N/A
Consumer Credit / Core: N/A
HY OAS: N/AThe 'high yield spread' — the extra interest rate that risky companies must pay to borrow. Higher = more fear about corporate defaults. The percentile tells you where this sits versus the past 2 years.
Funding Spread: N/AThe cost of short-term borrowing between banks. Negative = cheaper than normal (good). Positive = more expensive than normal (stress in the financial plumbing).
SPX vs 50-day MA: N/AIs the S&P 500 above or below its 50-day trend line? Below = the market is in a short-term downtrend.
VIX: 19.9The 'fear index.' Measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days. Below 15 = calm. 15-25 = normal. 25-35 = elevated fear. Above 35 = extreme fear.