UAMY — Fundamental Summary
Conviction 3UAMY — 1-Page Synthesis
Date: 2026-02-25 Analyst: Market Analyst (Signals)
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ UAMY — United States Antimony Corporation 2026-02-25 Sector: Basic Materials | Mkt Cap: ~$1.3B | Price: $9.04 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
OVERALL SCORE: 43.2/100 VERDICT: AVOID
RED FLAGS (4 found)
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• Extreme TTM valuation: P/S 38x, P/B 16.4x, fwd P/E 82x — zero [Valuation]
margin of safety; any guidance miss triggers multiple compression.
[HIGH — Structural/Disclosed]
• Gross margin compressing 3 consecutive quarters: Q1 33.9% → [Earnings]
Q2 27.0% → Q3 23.1%. Driven by antimony price decline from $59K
peak. Market is not pricing in this deterioration. *Common root
cause with Flag 4 (antimony price / ramp timing); together these
two flags count as ONE HIGH for verdict purposes.*
[HIGH — Hidden/Undisclosed]
• Serial equity dilution: shares up ~30% (~108M → ~140M) in 18 [Ownership]
months via three institutional raises totaling $69M. Book value/
share is $0.51; stock trades at $9.04. Dilution ongoing.
[HIGH — Structural/Disclosed]
• $125M 2026 revenue guidance requires 3x one-year revenue growth. [Catalysts]
Q3 2025 revenue fell sequentially (Q2 $10.5M → Q3 $8.7M; -17%).
Q4 earnings (April 6) carries binary risk. *Common root cause
with Flag 2; counted as ONE HIGH flag for verdict purposes.*
[HIGH — Structural/Disclosed]
VERDICT LOGIC: 3 distinct HIGH flags after root-cause dedup (Flag 2 + Flag 4 share root cause = 1 HIGH). At least one flag is Hidden/Undisclosed (Flag 2 / margin compression). Per spec: 2+ HIGH flags with at least one Hidden/Undisclosed → AVOID. Also triggered: Valuation component (20/100) < 30 → CAUTION or AVOID.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
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Earnings & Financial Health 35/100 ▼ decline Rev +182% YoY but
op. losses deepen;
Q3 EPS -500% miss
Balance Sheet & Capital 60/100 ▬ stable Near-zero debt, CR
5.1x, $38.5M liquid;
FCF -$20M (capex)
Valuation 20/100 ▼ expensive P/S 38x TTM; requires
full guidance execute
Peer Relative Strength 65/100 ▲ leader #1 in 3M/6M vs peers;
only revenue-gen peer
vs. pre-rev comps
Catalyst Outlook 50/100 +/- binary Q4 earnings April 6
is make-or-break;
DLA orders positive
Ownership & Flow 42/100 ▬ mixed CEO buying (+), inst.
44% (+), but 19.2%
short interest (-)
PEER CONTEXT
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Peers: MP, LAC, USAR, SLI | Rank: 1st of 4 on 3M/6M returns Strongest peer: UAMY +34% 3M / +106% 6M | Weakest: MP -6% 3M
KEY CATALYSTS (next 90 days)
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Apr 6, 2026 Q4 & FY2025 Earnings Report UNCERTAIN/HIGH
(FY2025 guidance $40-43M; Q4 run-rate risk — Q3 miss
must be $13-16M to hit range) adds concern
Ongoing DLA IDIQ delivery orders POSITIVE/MEDIUM
(first $10M order Sept 2025; pace of (not guaranteed)
subsequent orders drives 2026 revenue)
Ongoing Antimony spot price (~$30-40K/tonne) NEGATIVE/HIGH
(down from $59.7K July 2025 peak; if price falls
floor unclear; impacts realized price) below $25K
THESIS (2-3 sentences)
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Bull: UAMY's genuine North American antimony monopoly with $351M in
contracted pipeline and a ramping smelter positions it for
$125M+ in 2026 revenue, validating today's valuation and
potentially driving shares back to prior highs.
Bear: The $1.27B market cap (38x TTM P/S) prices in full bull-case
execution; Q3 2025's 32% revenue miss and accelerating gross
margin compression signal the guidance may already be failing,
and any miss would trigger a violent multiple reset.
Base: UAMY delivers $50-80M in 2026 (short of $125M guidance) as
the smelter ramps slower than modeled and antimony prices
settle at $25-35K/tonne; the stock re-rates to $4-7 with
continued dilution funding the gap.
MACRO/SECTOR HEADWINDS
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Antimony prices have declined ~40% from the July 2025 peak of $59,750/tonne; Fastmarkets projects further normalization in 2026 as alternative producers (Tajikistan, Russia, Australia) expand. China's export whitelist (11 approved exporters) limits supply but does not eliminate it. Policy tailwinds (US critical minerals strategy, defense procurement) remain supportive, but the geopolitical premium that re-rated the stock in 2024-2025 may be partially exhausted. Story stock in a risk-off market = first sold.
DATA QUALITY NOTE: RS Screener and Immune System outputs were not available for this analysis. Insider data sourced via web search rather than direct SEC EDGAR pull — may be incomplete.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Sources: yfinance (price, financials, balance sheet, cash flow), WebSearch (defense contracts, antimony pricing, analyst ratings, SEC Form 4 data, earnings call transcript summaries), GuruFocus (insider activity), Fastmarkets (antimony outlook), StockTitan (press releases, SEC filings), Nasdaq (earnings dates)
Deep dives: analysis/UAMY-earnings.md | analysis/UAMY-valuation.md
analysis/UAMY-balance-sheet.md | analysis/UAMY-peers.md
analysis/UAMY-peer-strength.md | analysis/UAMY-catalysts.md
analysis/UAMY-ownership.md | analysis/UAMY-sector-context.md
analysis/UAMY-risk-scorecard.md | analysis/UAMY-alignment.md
analysis/UAMY-thesis.md
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Scoring Methodology Note
All scores calculated via Python (Bash tool). Overall composite = weighted average of 6 scored modules:
0.25×35 + 0.20×20 + 0.15×60 + 0.15×65 + 0.15×50 + 0.10×42 = 43.2
Breakdown: 8.75 + 4.00 + 9.00 + 9.75 + 7.50 + 4.20 = 43.2