IPX -- Technical Deep Dive

• Date: 2026-03-11
• Researcher: Quant Researcher (Signals)
• Status: Complete
• Script: analysis/quant-research/scripts/ipx-technical-setup-2026-03-11.py
• Charts: charts/ipx_technical_setup.png, charts/ipx_momentum_indicators.png, charts/ipx_rs_volume_profile.png, charts/ipx_volatility_analysis.png

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1. Score Box

===========================================================
  IPX -- Technical Analysis                     2026-03-11
  Asset Class: Equity
  Price: $50.26  |  52wk: $19.33 - $61.45
  AH Price: ~$44 (-12% post-earnings)
===========================================================

  OVERALL SCORE: 7.0/10      BIAS: Bullish (with timing caveat)

  COMPONENT SCORES
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  Trend Alignment         8.0/10  wt 25%  EMA12>21>50, all rising, above SMA200
  Momentum                6.5/10  wt 20%  MACD bullish, RSI 59; Stoch overbought
  Volume Confirmation     7.0/10  wt 20%  OBV/AD rising; 2.4x vol expansion
  Volatility Profile      6.0/10  wt 15%  HV20 at 70% of lifetime; ATR expanding
  Market Structure        8.0/10  wt 20%  Higher-low sequence confirmed

  KEY LEVELS (pre-AH)
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  ATH / Resistance 2: $61.45  2026-01-26
  38.2% Fib:          $52.69  Next resistance
  50% Fib / Current:  $50.26  Decision zone
  61.8% Fib:          $47.28  First support
  EMA21:              $46.94  Trend support
  EMA50:              $45.38  Key trend level
  Vol POC:            $44.52  Highest volume node (200d)
  Swing Low:          $38.52  Structure support (2026-02-13)
  SMA200:             $40.27  Long-term trend

  RED FLAGS                                    (2 found)
  -----------------------------------------------------------
  HIGH   Max drawdown -66% in 3.5yr history     [Volatility]
  MEDIUM Stochastic overbought at 92.4          [Momentum]

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2. Executive Summary

IPX has a strong bullish trend structure -- EMA stack is aligned (12>21>50, all rising), price is 24.8% above the SMA200, and the swing low sequence ($27.45 -> $31.17 -> $38.52) confirms progressively higher support. The stock has massively outperformed SPY over 20 days (+16.8%) and 50 days (+37.9%), with low correlation (0.43) confirming this is stock-specific strength, not beta.

However, the entry timing at $50.26 was suboptimal. Multiple indicators flagged short-term extension: Stochastic at 92.4, z-score 1.42, Donchian position 0.94, and price sitting exactly at the 50% Fibonacci retracement from ATH. The quant analysis recommended waiting for either a pullback to the EMA21/61.8% Fib cluster (~$47) or a confirmed breakout above $52.69.

The -12% after-hours move changes the calculus significantly. At ~$44, IPX would be: - Below the EMA50 ($45.38) -- first time since the February rally began - Near the volume POC ($44.52) -- the highest-volume price node over 200 days - All overbought signals (Stochastic, z-score, Donchian) would be reset - Approaching the key support zone between SMA200 ($40.27) and swing low ($38.52)

This transforms the setup from "strong trend but late entry" to "potential structure test with defined support."

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3. Squeeze Analysis

Metric	Value
Current ATR ratio	1.184
Currently in squeeze	No
Last squeeze	2025-11-26 to 2026-01-14 (49 days)
Total squeeze episodes	17

IPX is not in a squeeze. The last squeeze ended 2026-01-14, and price has moved +49% since. Historical squeeze breakout performance (n=17): best window is 10 days (+6.95% mean, 65% hit rate, 0.54 IR). The 20-day median return turns negative (-1.15%), suggesting squeeze momentum fades quickly in this name.

4. EMA Band Structure

Level	Price	Distance from Close
Close	$50.26	--
EMA12	$47.62	+5.6% above
EMA21	$46.94	+7.1% above
EMA50	$45.38	+10.8% above
SMA200	$40.27	+24.8% above

At the AH price of ~$44, the stock would be below the EMA50 for the first time since the rally began, testing a critical trend level.

5. Volume Analysis

Metric	Value	Interpretation
20d avg volume	159,553	2.43x historical average
Up/Down volume ratio (20d)	2.00	Strongly bullish
Volume skew (50d)	0.96	Neutral
OBV 20d slope	+70,812	Positive accumulation
A/D line 20d slope	+66,114	Positive accumulation

Volume is mixed but net-positive. The 20-day bullish signature (2.0 up/down ratio, positive OBV/AD) is strong, but the 50-day skew is neutral (0.96). The bullish volume is recent, not yet established over a longer window.

6. Relative Strength

Window	IPX Return	SPY Return	Excess
20d	+14.6%	-2.2%	+16.8%
50d	+36.0%	-1.9%	+37.9%
100d	-14.4%	+2.1%	-16.5%

Exceptional short-term RS, but 100-day still negative. Low SPY correlation (0.43) confirms stock-specific catalysts driving the move.

7. Support/Resistance Framework

Fibonacci levels (ATH $61.45 to post-ATH low $38.52):

Level	Price	Status
23.6%	$56.04	Overhead resistance
38.2%	$52.69	Near-term resistance
50%	$49.99	Close-of-day decision zone
61.8%	$47.28	First support
78.6%	$43.44	AH price landing zone

Key insight: The -12% AH drop puts IPX near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ($43.44) -- a much deeper reset than the quant's recommended $47 pullback entry. This is near the volume POC ($44.52) and would test the EMA50 from below.

8. Drawdown History

Episode	Drawdown	Duration
1	-66%	Longest
2	-51%
3	-49%
4	-43%

IPX has experienced four 40%+ drawdowns in 3.5 years. Position sizing must account for this extreme volatility (lifetime HV = 83.3%).

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Data through 2026-03-10. AH estimates based on reported -12% move.

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Appendix A: Models & Configuration

Data Source

Field	Value
Ticker	IPX
Source	data-samples/ohlcv/IPX.csv (yfinance)
Date range	2022-06-21 to 2026-03-10
Bars	933 trading days
Benchmark	SPY (S&P 500 ETF)
Comparables attempted	MP, LTHM, LAC, UUUU, NXE, IREN, VALE, X, CLF, AA, CENX
Comparables found	IREN (only match in local dataset)

Indicator Configuration

Indicator	Parameters	Library/Source
Squeeze Detection	ATR(14) / SMA(ATR, 50), threshold ≤ 0.90	models/shared/indicators.py — compute_atr(), compute_sma()
EMA Stack	EMA(12), EMA(21), EMA(50)	models/shared/indicators.py — compute_ema()
SMA 200	SMA(200)	models/shared/indicators.py — compute_sma()
Donchian Channel	20-period	models/shared/indicators.py — compute_donchian()
RSI	14-period, Wilder smoothing (ewm alpha=1/14)	Custom (pandas ewm)
MACD	Fast=12, Slow=26, Signal=9	Custom (via compute_ema())
Stochastic	%K=14, %D=3 (SMA smoothing)	Custom (pandas rolling)
Bollinger Bands	20-period SMA, 2 standard deviations	Custom (pandas rolling)
ATR	14-period	models/shared/indicators.py — compute_atr()
OBV	Cumulative sign(return) × volume	Custom (numpy/pandas)
A/D Line	CLV multiplier × volume, cumulative	Custom (pandas)
Historical Volatility	20-day and 50-day log-return std × √252	Custom (pandas/numpy)
Volume Profile	40 bins over 200-day range, volume-weighted	Custom (numpy histogram)

Squeeze Detection Detail

The squeeze detector matches the TradingView Squeeze Breakout indicator configuration:

ATR_PERIOD = 14
ATR_SMA_PERIOD = 50
SQUEEZE_THRESHOLD = 0.90

atr_ratio = ATR(14) / SMA(ATR(14), 50)
in_squeeze = atr_ratio ≤ 0.90

• Threshold 0.90 matches the TV indicator's fire threshold (input max is 0.95 but 0.90 is the actual trigger)
• Note: The gut check engine uses a more conservative default of 0.80. Per-ticker registry overrides target ~0.90 to match TV.

Support/Resistance Detection

Parameter	Value
Swing point lookback	10 bars
Fibonacci reference high	All-time high ($61.45, 2026-01-26)
Fibonacci reference low	Post-ATH swing low ($38.52, 2026-02-13)
Volume profile lookback	200 days
Value area threshold	70% of total volume

Composite Setup Scoring Rubric

Factor	Max Points	Criteria
Squeeze	2	+2 if currently in squeeze, +1 if within 5 bars
EMA stack	2	+2 if bullish (12>21>50), +1 if above EMA50
EMA50 trend	1	+1 if rising (10-bar slope > 0)
Above SMA200	1	+1 if close > SMA200
Volume skew	1	+1 if 50-day up/down avg volume ratio > 1.1
RSI zone	1	+1 if RSI(14) between 40-65
RS vs SPY	1	+1 if 20-day IPX return > SPY return
Vol compression	1	+1 if HV(20) < 80% of HV(all)
Total	10

Signal Quality Methodology

Squeeze breakout forward returns were measured from the bar where atr_ratio crossed back above 0.90 (squeeze end). Forward windows: 5, 10, 20, 40 trading days. Hit rate = proportion of positive returns. Information Ratio = mean / std of forward returns.

Script

Analysis script: analysis/quant-research/scripts/ipx-technical-setup-2026-03-11.py