Credit Stress

ELEVATED Mar 14, 2026 56.1 composite

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[FORWARD-LOOKING RISK SIGNAL] Credit stress is the primary forward-looking indicator in the Signals system. Elevated readings (>50) correlate with deeper drawdowns over the next 1-3 weeks (Spearman rho = -0.23 with 21-day forward MDD).

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Credit stress is building. This is the strongest forward-looking risk signal in the system. Elevated readings correlate with deeper drawdowns over 1-3 weeks. Consider reviewing position sizes and stop levels.

Sub-Scores

Corporate Credit?

79.5

Consumer Credit?

61.4

Funding Stress?

43.8

NORMAL

ELEVATED

HIGH

CRITICAL

56.1

Composite Capitulation Score (CCS)

3 / 4 SEVERE

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VIX z-score extreme (z=2.38)

HYG drawdown (dd=-1.7%)

✔

Breadth collapse

✔

XLF below 200 DMA

[SEVERE] 3 of 4 components firing. Historically, this level precedes tradeable bottoms. Monitor for 4th component to confirm full capitulation.

Data as of: 2026-03-13T16:00:00Z

Regime Context (SLOOS Quarterly)

DRTSCILM: +5.3% net tightening (2026-01-01)

Regime: Moderate Tightening

DRTSCLCC: +0.0% net tightening (2026-01-01)

Regime: Neutral

SLOOS data is quarterly. Values reflect bank lending standards, not incorporated into the daily composite score.

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