Crypto Cycle Report
How to Read the Score
The composite score ranges from 0 to 100, where low = low risk = buying opportunity and high = high risk = distribution zone. A score of 22/100 is bullish, not broken.
BTC-USD
BTC-USD is in an accumulation phase -- 5 of 8 indicators point to below-average risk. The Mayer Multiple (0.74) shows price is 26% below its 200-day average, a level that has historically preceded rallies. On-chain metrics confirm: MVRV at 1.30 means the market isn't overheated. Price is 44.9% below its all-time high, a significant correction but historically recoverable. The main caution flag is the Bear EMA regime, meaning the trend is still down even as value builds. Score: 20/100 = very low risk, deep value zone.
Component Breakdown
| Signal | Value | Risk Score | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Mayer Multiple
Price is 26% below its 200-day average -- historically a buying zone
|
0.742 (Oversold) | OHLCV | |
|
EMA Regime
Price is below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages -- trend is down
|
Bear | OHLCV | |
|
Drawdown from ATH
44.9% below all-time high -- significant correction, historically recoverable
|
-44.9% | OHLCV | |
|
MVRV
Market value is 30% above realized value -- moderate, not overheated
|
1.304 | api | |
|
NUPL
Network is slightly profitable -- far from euphoria levels
|
0.234 | api | |
|
SOPR
Coins are being spent at a slight loss on average -- typical of accumulation
|
0.994 | api | |
|
Puell Multiple
Miners are earning below their yearly average -- revenue stress suggests reduced sell pressure
|
0.689 | api | |
|
Cross-Asset Corr
Crypto is moderately correlated with equities (0.49)
|
btc_spy=0.49, btc_dxy=-0.07 | OHLCV |
Context Overlay
- Immune System: HIGH
Turbulence: 17.7 | VIX: 26.8 | Consumer credit: NORMAL
- Credit Stress: HIGH (78.1/100)
Corporate: 92.4 | Consumer: 58.6 | Funding: 75.7
ETH-USD
ETH-USD is in a capitulation phase -- 5 of 8 indicators point to below-average risk. The Mayer Multiple (0.66) shows price is 34% below its 200-day average, a level that has historically preceded rallies. Price is 57.0% below its all-time high -- deep bear territory that has historically been a strong accumulation zone. On-chain metrics confirm: MVRV at 1.30 means the market isn't overheated. The main caution flag is the Bear EMA regime, meaning the trend is still down even as value builds. Score: 18/100 = very low risk, deep value zone.
Component Breakdown
| Signal | Value | Risk Score | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Mayer Multiple
Price is 34% below its 200-day average -- historically a buying zone
|
0.658 (Oversold) | OHLCV | |
|
EMA Regime
Price is below both 50-day and 200-day moving averages -- trend is down
|
Bear | OHLCV | |
|
Drawdown from ATH
57.0% below all-time high -- deep bear territory, extreme fear zone
|
-57.0% | OHLCV | |
|
MVRV
Market value is 30% above realized value -- moderate, not overheated
|
1.304 | proxy_btc | |
|
NUPL
Network is slightly profitable -- far from euphoria levels
|
0.234 | proxy_btc | |
|
SOPR
Coins are being spent at a slight loss on average -- typical of accumulation
|
0.994 | proxy_btc | |
|
Puell Multiple
Miners are earning below their yearly average -- revenue stress suggests reduced sell pressure
|
0.689 | proxy_btc | |
|
Cross-Asset Corr
Crypto is moderately correlated with equities (0.49)
|
eth_spy=0.49, eth_dxy=-0.13 | OHLCV |
Context Overlay
- Immune System: HIGH
Turbulence: 17.7 | VIX: 26.8 | Consumer credit: NORMAL
- Credit Stress: HIGH (78.1/100)
Corporate: 92.4 | Consumer: 58.6 | Funding: 75.7
Interpretation
On-chain and technical signals suggest favorable risk/reward.
Suggested Actions
- Accumulate core positions on weakness
- Standard position sizing applies
Cycle Chart
